The Indian Navy massed naval forces in the Northern Arabian Sea and sent a carrier battle group, surface combatants, submarines and naval aviation to keep their Pakistani adversaries in a “defensive position,” officials said this week.
Two weeks after the killing of 24 tourists in Kashmir, tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated. Trade, shipping, and a less obvious concern is the risk of the conflict spilling into the sea.
As the world’s third-largest ocean, the Indian Ocean offers ample space for naval manoeuvres. Leaders on both sides might view naval forces as a less escalatory option, fighting offshore, away from civilian areas and media attention, with vast waters of both the Indian and Northern Arabian Sea allowing for strategic flexibility.
However, naval confrontations can escalate quickly, and a strategy of brinkmanship at sea risks pushing both strong navy nations closer to a wider war.
The Indian Navy is a formidable force, equipped with two aircraft carriers, over a dozen surface ships, 16 attack submarines, and a fleet of long-range P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, along with fighters, attack jets, and helicopters suited for maritime operations. It boasts a personnel strength of more than 70,000 sailors.
Pakistan’s navy is smaller, with about 30,000 sailors and a more coastal focus due to its shorter shoreline. Still, it maintains a respectable fleet, supported by China and Turkey, including dozens of warships and eight active submarines. It operates older but capable P-3 Orion patrol aircraft and has elite maritime special forces, much like India’s.
“The Indian Navy remained forward deployed in the Northern Arabian Sea in a dissuasive and deterrent posture, with full readiness and capacity to strike select targets at sea, and on land, compelling Pakistani Naval and air units to be in a defensive posture, inside harbours or very close to their coast,” reads a release from the service.
A press conference from the Pakistani Armed Forces claimed that their naval forces tracked the movements of the Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikrant (R11) in the Northern Arabian Sea.
“The Indian Navy remains deployed at sea in a credible deterrent posture, to respond decisively to any inimical action by Pakistan, or Pakistan based terrorist,” reads the release.
As history shows, like in the Cold War novel The Bedford Incident, a naval encounter can quickly spiral out of control with catastrophic results. A similar scenario, on a smaller scale, could unfold in the northern Indian Ocean, with the US Navy’s Indo-Pacific Command caught in the middle. India and Pakistan would be wise to avoid escalating tensions, both in Kashmir and across the vast Indian Ocean.g tensions, both in Kashmir and across the vast Indian Ocean.
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