In a bid to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, the Lloyd’s Register (LR) Maritime Decarbonisation Hub has released a comprehensive report titled “The Future of Maritime Fuels.” The report examines various fuel scenarios and pinpoints two prominent pathways for the shipping industry’s transition – hydrogen-based fuels and biofuels.
Hydrogen Takes the Lead: The report forecasts e-ammonia as the primary maritime fuel, occupying a substantial 35% share of the shipping fuels market by 2050. This significant adoption is set to make the shipping industry the largest global consumer of ammonia. Blue and e-ammonia together are expected to represent 20% to 60% of total shipping fuels by 2050.
Biofuels in the Mix: On the biofuels front, liquefied bio-methane is projected to secure an average share of 34% of total shipping fuels by 2050. While the demand for bio-methane will increase, the report highlights a potential shortfall in supply, varying between 0.3 to 2 exajoules (EJ).
Methanol’s Market Share: Surprisingly, methanol is expected to have a smaller market share compared to ammonia and bio-methane. Bio- and e-methanol fuels are anticipated to capture approximately 13.4% of the total shipping fuels market by 2050.
These projections underline the industry’s pivotal role in driving alternative fuel adoption while facing challenges related to demand, supply, and investment. Carlo Raucci, Decarbonisation Consultant, suggests that industry stakeholders should consider first-mover initiatives like green shipping corridors to reduce uncertainty and risks.
Charles Haskell, Director of LR Maritime Decarbonisation Hub, emphasizes the importance of leadership and cross-sector collaboration in shaping multi-fuel strategies. Given the uncertainty surrounding a dominant fuel category, exploring interactions with the broader energy demand system is crucial.
The report concludes by highlighting the need for deeper examination of fuel supply dynamics and cross-sector collaboration to enrich the industry’s understanding of the multifaceted fuel transition. It’s a significant step toward greener horizons for the maritime industry.
Download the report here.